Adam Sobel, Columbia: Climate Risk Science

Value of the Information & Strength of the Argument

The talk provides valuable insights into the gap between climate science and practical adaptation needs. Sobel’s argument is well-structured and grounded in his extensive experience. He effectively uses examples from his research and industry collaborations to illustrate the challenges and potential solutions. The discussion of epistemic uncertainties, particularly regarding tropical cyclone frequency, is honest and highlights the limitations of current knowledge. The proposal for a new organization is thought-provoking, though it is presented as a work in progress.

Scientific Rigor, Source Quality, Title Accuracy

Sobel demonstrates scientific rigor by referencing peer-reviewed research and his own published work. He acknowledges uncertainties and avoids overstating conclusions. The sources cited are primarily his own group’s publications and industry collaborations, which are appropriate for the context. The title accurately reflects the content, which focuses on the concept and practice of climate risk science.

The title accurately reflects the content, which focuses on the concept and practice of climate risk science.

8/10

Talk by a leading climate scientist with extensive experience in both academia and the insurance industry. The content is based on peer-reviewed research and practical engagement, but it is a presentation, not a formal publication, and some claims are presented as opinions or proposals.

Markers derived by PSI from the transcript: the creator did not define chapters.

• 00:00Introduction by Amy Clement and start of Adam Sobel's talk.
• 02:00Sobel defines climate risk science and its importance for adaptation.
• 05:00Discussion of the gap between climate model output and decision-relevant information.
• 10:00Overview of catastrophe models used in the insurance industry.
• 15:00Introduction of the CHAZ model for synthetic hurricane generation.
• 20:00Presentation of results showing uncertainty in future tropical cyclone frequency.
• 25:00Discussion of the role of humidity predictors in model uncertainty.
• 30:00Results from collaboration with AON on US hurricane wind losses.
• 35:00Discussion of the tropical Pacific bias and its implications.
• 40:00Proposal for a new organization to provide usable climate risk science.

• CHAZ model publications — Sobel mentions the CHAZ model developed by his group, but no specific URL is provided in the talk.
• AON collaboration — Sobel discusses work with AON, but no specific URL is given.

• IPCC AR6 WG1 — The IPCC reports provide consensus on climate change science, including uncertainties in extreme events.

• Some climate models show increases in tropical cyclone frequency — Sobel notes that while many models project decreases, some show increases, indicating a lack of consensus.