The Next Financial Crisis? | Tenth ECB Annual Research Conference 2025 | Day 1

The video provides a high-level overview of current concerns in financial stability, featuring authoritative voices from the ECB and academia. President Lagarde’s opening remarks effectively frame the conference theme, drawing on historical perspectives and recent structural shifts in the financial system. She highlights the significant growth of non-bank financial institutions in the euro area, from 140% of GDP in 1999 to nearly 400% today, and notes the interconnectedness between banks and non-banks. Her reference to the March 2023 bank failures underscores the role of social media in amplifying contagion. The keynote by Raghuram Rajan is intellectually stimulating, as he challenges the conventional separation of monetary policy and financial stability tools. He invokes the Tinbergen rule and argues that in practice, trade-offs exist, and central banks may need to consider financial stability in setting interest rates. Rajan references his own research, such as ‘Credit Bites Back’ (2013), which provides empirical evidence on the credit channel. However, the presentation is relatively brief and does not delve deeply into specific mechanisms or policy prescriptions. The discussion is more conceptual than technical, making it accessible to a broad audience but less detailed for specialists. The sources cited are primarily the conference program and the mentioned book, but no direct links to specific research papers are provided in the description. The video is a recording of a live event, so production quality is adequate but not polished. Overall, the content is reliable and insightful, but it serves as an introduction rather than a comprehensive analysis. The title accurately reflects the content, and the conference’s collaborative nature with Stanford’s Hoover Institution adds credibility. The video would be valuable for those interested in central banking and financial stability, but it may not satisfy viewers seeking in-depth technical analysis.

The title accurately reflects the conference theme, which is the focus of the opening remarks and keynote.

8/10

The video features high-level policymakers and academics, including ECB President Christine Lagarde and former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan, discussing financial stability with reference to academic research. The content is authoritative and well-structured, though it is primarily an opening address and keynote, not a detailed research presentation.

Markers derived by PSI from the transcript: the creator did not define chapters.

• 00:00Introduction and welcoming remarks by ECB President Christine Lagarde.
• 10:00Lagarde discusses the growth of non-bank financial institutions and their risks.
• 20:00Lagarde emphasizes the role of research and regulation in financial stability.
• 30:00Introduction of keynote speaker Raghuram Rajan.
• 40:00Rajan begins his keynote on monetary policy and financial stability.
• 50:00Rajan discusses the Tinbergen rule and trade-offs between inflation and financial stability.
• 1:00:00Rajan references his research 'Credit Bites Back' and other evidence.
• 1:10:00Rajan concludes his keynote and opens for questions.

• ECB Annual Research Conference 2025 programme — Official conference programme providing details on sessions and speakers.
• This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly — Book by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, referenced by Lagarde to illustrate that financial crises recur in different forms.

• ECB Financial Stability Review — ECB publication that regularly assesses risks to financial stability, aligning with the conference theme.