Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2025

The video provides a rigorous and insightful presentation of a novel economic model that addresses a significant gap in the sticky-price literature: the assumption that firms always satisfy demand. The speaker, Tom Holden, is an economist at the Deutsche Bundesbank, lending credibility to the research. The presentation is well-structured, starting with a clear motivation from real-world supply disruptions, then explaining the theoretical mechanism, presenting empirical evidence, and finally outlining the model and its implications. The argumentation is solid: the speaker carefully explains why rationing is a natural consequence of sticky prices, using a simple back-of-the-envelope calculation to show that even modest inflation can lead to significant increases in marginal costs, making rationing optimal. The empirical evidence, including data on stockouts and responses to monetary policy shocks, supports the theoretical claims. However, the video is a conference presentation, not a peer-reviewed paper, and the speaker does not provide full citations or links to the underlying data and sources. The technical level is high, with advanced mathematical notation and economic jargon, which may limit accessibility to non-specialists. The adéquation between title and content is strong, as the session indeed focuses on firm pricing theories. Overall, the video offers valuable insights into the macro implications of rationing, but viewers should be aware that it is a research presentation and not a comprehensive review of the literature. The lack of interactive elements and the length (over 8 hours) may also affect engagement, but this specific segment is focused and informative.

The title accurately reflects the content: the video is a session from the ECB's annual inflation conference, focusing on firm pricing theories and rationing under sticky prices.

8/10

The video is a recording of an academic conference session featuring a research paper presentation by an economist from the Deutsche Bundesbank. The content is technical, based on economic theory and empirical evidence, and follows standard academic presentation norms. The speaker is affiliated with a reputable institution, and the conference is hosted by the ECB and the Cleveland Fed. The presentation includes references to data and prior research, though the video does not provide full citations or links. The quality is high, but the lack of verifiable sources in the video and the absence of peer review in this format slightly reduce the score.

Markers derived by PSI from the transcript: the creator did not define chapters.

• 00:00Session starts; introduction to the session on firm pricing theories.
• 00:30Tom Holden begins his presentation on 'Rationing under Sticky Prices'.
• 02:00Motivation: supply disruptions leading to stockouts and delivery delays.
• 05:00Explanation of why sticky prices lead to rationing; real price erosion and marginal cost increase.
• 10:00Introduction of the model: continuous-time New Keynesian model with random rationing.
• 15:00Empirical evidence: stockouts data, response to monetary policy shocks, and price adjustment rates.
• 20:00Model details: firm pricing, demand shocks, and rationing mechanism.
• 25:00Key findings: convex Phillips curve, welfare costs of inflation, and monetary policy effectiveness.
• 30:00Discussion of implications and comparison with standard sticky-price models.
• 35:00Q&A session begins; audience questions and clarifications.

• No specific sources cited in the video — The speaker mentions data from Kabay Kristoff, Caldara and Iacoviello, Miranda-Agrippino and Rico, and Daniel Var, but does not provide URLs or full citations.

• Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) - Measuring Geopolitical Risk — The speaker references a measure of shortages by Caldara and Iacoviello, which is a newspaper-based index.