Q2B25 Silicon Valley | Mehmet Sanliol, Managing Director, Evercore

Value of the Information & Strength of the Argument

The presentation offers valuable insights into the quantum computing investment landscape, providing specific data on funding amounts, investor types, and valuation multiples. The argumentation is structured and logical, using comparisons with AI semis and concept stocks to contextualize valuations. However, the analysis is based on proprietary data and assumptions that are not fully disclosed, such as the 30% margin assumption and discount rates. The speaker’s perspective as an investment banker may introduce bias, but the reasoning is coherent and grounded in market observations.

Scientific Rigor, Source Quality, Title Accuracy

The presentation demonstrates a good understanding of the quantum market, but it lacks explicit citations to external sources. The data presented appears to be from Evercore’s internal analysis, which is not publicly verifiable. The title accurately reflects the content, and the speaker’s credentials add credibility. However, the lack of transparent methodology and potential conflicts of interest reduce the scientific rigor. The presentation is more of an expert opinion than a peer-reviewed analysis.

The title accurately reflects the content: a presentation by Mehmet Sanliol at Q2B25 Silicon Valley on later-stage funding and public valuation environment.

7/10

The speaker is a Managing Director at Evercore, a reputable investment bank, with eight years of coverage in the quantum and semiconductor sectors. The presentation provides data-driven insights into private and public funding, valuations, and market dynamics. However, it is an opinion piece based on proprietary analysis, and no external sources are cited. The claims are plausible and align with known industry trends, but the lack of verifiable references and potential conflicts of interest (Evercore may advise these companies) temper the reliability score.

Markers derived by PSI from the transcript: the creator did not define chapters.

• 00:00Introduction and overview of private funding trends in quantum computing.
• 02:00Discussion on the shift towards software investment and the entry of new investors.
• 04:00Analysis of public market performance of quantum companies since 2021.
• 06:00Impact of Willow chip announcement on valuations and market interest.
• 08:00Comparison of revenue multiples across quantum, AI semis, and NASDAQ.
• 10:00Explanation of why consolidation is needed and recent M&A activity.
• 12:00Discussion on press mentions and the role of AI in quantum narrative.
• 14:00Framework for deriving a normal revenue multiple based on growth and discount rates.
• 16:00Application of the framework to quantum companies and comparison with concept stocks.
• 18:00Analysis of ownership structure and trading dynamics, including volatility and short interest.

• Q2B Conference Website — The conference where this presentation was given.
• Presentation Slides — Slides referenced in the video description, likely containing the data shown.

• Quantum Computing Report — Tracks funding and market developments in quantum computing, consistent with the trends described.

• Jensen Huang's CES 2025 comments — Huang's initial statement that quantum is 20-30 years away contrasts with the more optimistic view presented, though he later softened his stance.