Turkey's evolving role in a new global geopolitical and security order

Turkey's evolving role in a new global geopolitical and security order

🎙 AtlanticCouncil 👥 125K 📅 February 17, 2026 ⏱ 86 min 👁 6K 📄 expert opinion 🧭 2026-08-06
Available in: English (current) Français

Keywords

Turkeygeopoliticsmiddle powershedgingenergy

Summary

The Atlantic Council’s Turkey Program hosts a panel discussion on Turkey’s evolving role in the new global geopolitical and security order. Moderated by Pinar Dost, the panel features Will Wechsler, Brenda Shaffer, and Rich Outzen. The discussion begins with an analysis of the shifting international system, where the perception of US withdrawal is driving middle powers to seek strategic autonomy. Turkey is highlighted as a successful middle power, leveraging its geostrategic position through hedging, mediation, and expanded influence. Will Wechsler identifies four potential pitfalls for Turkey: overplaying its hand in Syria, perceptions of encirclement in Israel, neo-Ottoman aspirations in the Gulf, and involvement in US domestic politics. Brenda Shaffer challenges the premise of a rules-based order and argues that the US is not disengaging but changing its engagement style. She discusses Turkey’s energy dependence on Russia and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on energy markets. Rich Outzen provides insights on Turkey’s defense industry and its role in regional security. The panel explores Turkey’s relations with the EU, US, and regional actors, emphasizing the need for strategic balance. The discussion concludes with audience questions, addressing topics such as Turkey’s role in Syria, its relations with Russia, and the future of NATO. Overall, the panel offers a comprehensive and nuanced analysis of Turkey’s foreign policy in a changing world order.

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Critical Evaluation

The panel discussion provides a high-quality analysis of Turkey’s evolving role in the global geopolitical and security order, featuring experts with deep regional knowledge. The value of the information is substantial, as the speakers offer nuanced perspectives on complex issues, such as Turkey’s hedging strategies, its energy dependence on Russia, and its potential to overplay its hand in various theaters. The argumentation is generally solid, with each speaker grounding their points in observable trends and specific examples, such as Turkey’s military operations in Syria and Libya, and its mediation efforts in the Russia-Ukraine war. However, the discussion is primarily opinion-driven, lacking empirical data or citations to specific studies, which limits its scientific rigor. The sources cited are not explicitly referenced, though the panelists’ institutional affiliations lend credibility. The adéquation between title and content is strong, as the discussion directly addresses Turkey’s role in the new global order. The public comments, if any, are not provided, so no analysis of audience reception is possible. Overall, the panel offers valuable insights for policymakers and scholars, but its reliance on expert opinion rather than verifiable data means it should be complemented with additional research.

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Title / Content Match

The title accurately reflects the content, which focuses on Turkey's evolving role in the global geopolitical and security order.

Quality & Reliability

8/10

The discussion features recognized experts from a reputable think tank, providing nuanced analysis of Turkey's geopolitical positioning. The panelists demonstrate deep knowledge and offer balanced perspectives, though the format is opinion-driven rather than data-heavy. The event is on the record and moderated professionally, enhancing credibility.

Key Moments

Cited Sources

  • Atlantic Council Turkey Program — The event is hosted by the Atlantic Council's Turkey Program, and the description links to the program's page.

Concurring Sources

  • Atlantic Council Turkey Program — The event is hosted by the Atlantic Council's Turkey Program, and the description links to the program's page.

Contribution & Novelties

The panel provides a timely and nuanced analysis of Turkey’s role in the evolving global order, offering insights into its hedging strategies, energy dependencies, and potential pitfalls. The discussion contributes to the ongoing debate on middle powers and the future of the rules-based order.

Pour aller plus loin :

  • Middle power — This concept is central to the discussion, as Turkey is framed as a middle power navigating great power rivalries.
  • Hedging (international relations) — The panel frequently mentions Turkey’s hedging strategies, making this concept directly relevant.
  • Neo-Ottomanism — Will Wechsler discusses perceptions of Turkey’s neo-Ottoman aspirations, a key theme in the debate.

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Radar Profile

The radar profile shows high scores across all dimensions, indicating a well-rounded and informative discussion. The strengths lie in the quantity and quality of information, as well as the reliability of the experts involved. The technical level is appropriate for a policy-oriented audience, making the content accessible yet substantive.

Reliability 8/10