Battery Energy Storage in the US - The Forward Outlook: Livestream

Battery Energy Storage in the US - The Forward Outlook: Livestream

by Modo Energy

Applied Sciences & Engineering Economics & Finance KNBEnergy industries and utilitiesKNBLElectrical power generation and distribution industries
🎙 Modo Energy 👥 25K 📅 August 6, 2026 ⏱ 52 min 👁 2K 📄 expert opinion 🧭 2026-08-15
Available in: English (current) Français

Keywords

battery storageERCOTPJMrevenueload growthpolicytariffsIRAdata centersenergy markets

Summary

In this livestream, Modo Energy’s CEO Quentin Scrimshire and US research lead Brandt Vermillion present their forward outlook for battery energy storage across the seven US independent system operators (ISOs) out to 2041. They begin by discussing the unprecedented load growth driven by data centers, with peak demand expected to grow 40-50% in some markets. The policy backdrop is characterized by uncertainty: tariffs, ‘Made in America’ rules, and the sunsetting of IRA tax credits. Despite these headwinds, lithium-ion battery pack prices continue to fall, and $100 billion in announced investment is expected. The state of the market shows that most battery capacity is currently in ERCOT and CAISO, but nascent markets like PJM and SPP are starting to grow. Using ERCOT as a case study, they illustrate how battery deployment has flattened peak prices and reduced revenue opportunities, with average battery revenues down roughly 8x from a couple of years ago. Their forward outlook expects installed capacity to triple by 2030, with significant growth in emerging markets. They present revenue stacks to 2041 across representative nodes and a house view matrix for each ISO. They also highlight eight charts they are watching, including ERCOT peak demand, gas turbine costs, and PJM’s ’law of big numbers’. The Q&A session addresses ancillary service saturation, why developers continue to build despite poor economics, and the impact of RTC+B in ERCOT.

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Critical Evaluation

Value of the Information & Strength of the Argument

The video provides substantial value through its detailed, data-driven analysis of US battery storage markets. It offers specific figures, such as the 5 GW jump in ERCOT peak load in two years, the 8x decline in battery revenues, and the tripling of installed capacity by 2030. The argumentation is solid, grounded in Modo Energy’s proprietary market data and modeling. The speakers clearly explain their assumptions, such as the distinction between stated and realistic load growth, and they acknowledge uncertainties in policy and demand. They also provide a balanced view, noting both tailwinds (falling battery costs, capital flows) and headwinds (revenue compression, policy uncertainty). The use of case studies, like ERCOT’s peak load days, effectively illustrates the impact of batteries on market dynamics. However, as a forward-looking analysis, it is inherently speculative, and the ‘house view’ is based on their own models, which may not be fully transparent.

Scientific Rigor, Source Quality, Title Accuracy

The video demonstrates strong rigor in its use of data and sources. The speakers reference specific data points, such as the American Clean Power Association’s $100 billion investment figure, and they rely on Modo Energy’s own indices and models, which are based on actual market data. The description provides a link to Modo Energy’s website for further exploration. The title accurately reflects the content, which is a forward-looking analysis of battery storage in the US. The presentation is well-structured with clear chapters, and the speakers are knowledgeable and credible. However, the analysis is largely based on the company’s proprietary models, which may not be independently verifiable. The video does not cite external academic or peer-reviewed sources, but it does reference policy and market data. Overall, the rigor is high for an industry analysis, but it is not a scientific study.

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Title / Content Match

The title accurately reflects the content: a livestream discussing the forward outlook for battery energy storage in the US, covering market-by-market analysis out to 2041.

Quality & Reliability

8/10

The video is produced by Modo Energy, a specialized energy analytics firm, and features its CEO and research lead. They present detailed market data, modeling outputs, and forward-looking analysis based on their proprietary data and models. The content is well-structured, with clear explanations of assumptions and uncertainties. However, it is largely opinion and forward-looking, not peer-reviewed, and relies on the company's own models and interpretations.

Chapters

Cited Sources

  • Modo Energy — The video is produced by Modo Energy, and the description directs viewers to their website for more information on their energy market analytics and indices.

Concurring Sources

  • Modo Energy — The video's own data and analysis are consistent with the company's published indices and market insights.

Dissenting Sources

  • No discordant sources found — No external sources contradicting the video's claims were identified within the provided information.

Contribution & Novelties

This video provides a comprehensive, market-by-market forward outlook for battery storage in the US, synthesizing data on load growth, policy, and revenue trends. It offers a unique ‘house view’ matrix for each ISO, which is not commonly available publicly. The analysis highlights the collapse in ERCOT battery revenues and the shift towards nascent markets, providing valuable insights for investors and analysts. The discussion of policy uncertainty and its impact on deployment is particularly timely.

Pour aller plus loin :

  • ERCOT — Overview of the Texas grid operator, central to the discussion.
  • PJM Interconnection — The largest US grid operator, a key market for battery storage.
  • Investment Tax Credit (ITC) — Relevant to the policy backdrop and its impact on battery storage economics.
  • Lithium-ion battery — The technology driving the storage revolution, with falling costs as a key driver.

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Radar Profile

The radar profile shows high scores in quantity of information and global reliability, reflecting the video's data-rich and credible analysis. The technical level is moderately high, suitable for an industry audience. The quality of information is strong, though the forward-looking nature and reliance on proprietary models slightly temper the overall score.

Reliability 8/10