The Scramble for Critical Minerals (Part 3: Geoeconomics of Critical Minerals)

Value of the Information & Strength of the Argument

The presentations offer valuable insights into the geoeconomics of critical minerals. The first paper provides a rigorous theoretical framework using real options analysis, highlighting the ambiguous effects of geopolitical fragmentation and recycling on mine opening decisions. The second paper combines empirical analysis with theoretical modeling, showing that geopolitical shocks are perceived as demand shocks, which is a novel finding. The third paper addresses a timely policy issue with empirical evidence. The argumentation is solid, with clear methodologies and appropriate caveats. However, the presentations are work in progress, and some results are preliminary, which limits the overall value.

Scientific Rigor, Source Quality, Title Accuracy

The presentations demonstrate scientific rigor, with references to relevant literature and data sources. The first paper builds on established real options literature and cites empirical studies on resource prices. The second paper uses a well-known political relations index and structural VAR methodology, and references the work of Kilian. The third paper likely uses trade data and policy documents. The title accurately reflects the content, which focuses on geoeconomic aspects. The sources are appropriate, though not all are explicitly cited in the video. The adéquation between title and content is good.

The title accurately reflects the content, which focuses on the geoeconomic aspects of critical minerals, including geopolitical risks, strategic stockpiling, and supply chain dependencies.

7/10

The video presents three academic papers with rigorous theoretical and empirical methodologies, but the content is preliminary and not peer-reviewed. The presentations are clear and well-structured, but the lack of published results and the limited audience prevent a higher score.

Markers derived by PSI from the transcript: the creator did not define chapters.

• 00:00Introduction and first presentation by Aude Pommeret on opening mines under geopolitical risk.
• 02:00Discussion of the European Critical Raw Materials Act and the objective of 10% domestic extraction.
• 05:00Literature review on critical raw materials and the gap in supply-side analysis.
• 10:00Presentation of the real options model with jump diffusion processes.
• 15:00Analysis of the effects of uncertainty and geopolitical fragmentation on mine opening.
• 20:00Discussion of recycling and its three effects on the model.
• 25:00Q&A session on the first paper, addressing policy implications and limitations.
• 30:00Second presentation by Jamel Saadaoui on critical minerals and geopolitical rivalry.
• 40:00Empirical analysis using political relations index and structural VAR.
• 50:00Theoretical model of strategic stockpiling and its implications.
• 1:00:00Third presentation by Kevin Thow on China's export bans and diversification.
• 1:10:00Q&A and concluding remarks.

• Critical Raw Materials Act — Mentioned in the first presentation as a policy benchmark for EU domestic extraction.
• World Bank Commodity Price Data — Used in the first presentation to show impulse response functions of resource prices to supply shocks.
• Kilian (2009) - Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike — Referenced in the second presentation for the methodology to classify shocks.
• Jordà (2005) - Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections — Referenced in the second presentation for local projection methodology.

• Critical Raw Materials Act — Supports the policy context discussed in the first presentation.
• World Bank Commodity Price Data — Provides data consistent with the empirical analysis in the first presentation.

• Kilian (2009) - Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike — The second presentation finds geopolitical shocks act as demand shocks, while Kilian's framework often classifies geopolitical events as supply shocks. This is a point of contention.