SAFE Policy Web Seminar: Vorstellung des Finanzstabilitätsberichts 2025 der Bundesbank

SAFE Policy Web Seminar: Vorstellung des Finanzstabilitätsberichts 2025 der Bundesbank

by Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE

Humanities, Social Sciences & Thought Economics & Finance KFFinance and accountingKFFFinance and the finance industry
🎙 Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE 👥 435 📅 January 15, 2026 ⏱ 57 min 👁 72 📄 expert opinion 🧭 2026-08-15
Available in: English (current) Français

Keywords

financial stabilityBundesbankmacroprudentialcredit riskNBFI

Summary

The seminar presents the Bundesbank’s Financial Stability Report 2025, focusing on the resilience of the German financial system amid heightened uncertainty. Felix Thierfelder opens by describing the deteriorated macroeconomic environment: rising trade conflicts, geopolitical tensions, and structural challenges. He notes that US tariffs average 14% on EU imports, impacting Germany’s export-oriented industry. Economic growth is projected at only 0.2% in 2025, with potential growth at 0.4%. High public debt and rising interest payments are concerns, particularly in highly indebted countries, and the sovereign-bank nexus poses risks. The financial cycle shows a recovery in residential real estate prices, while commercial real estate remains uncertain. Credit growth is picking up slightly. Frank Heid then discusses banking sector risks, focusing on increasing credit risk, especially in commercial real estate, with NPL ratios rising since 2023. He presents a stress test on sovereign bond holdings, showing direct losses are manageable, but contagion effects could leave a third of banks weakly capitalized. He also notes that banks’ capital ratios appear high but are partly due to low risk weights from internal models. Marcel Madjarac covers non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs), including insurers and funds. Insurers face unrealized losses due to interest rate increases, and their asset liquidity has declined. Open-ended funds exhibit first-mover advantages, and during the April 2025 tariff shock, 17% of funds had to sell assets due to liquidity stress. The presentation concludes with policy implications, emphasizing the need for structural reforms and credible fiscal rules.

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Critical Evaluation

Value of the Information & Strength of the Argument

The seminar provides valuable insights into the current financial stability landscape in Germany, backed by rigorous analysis from the Bundesbank. The argumentation is solid, based on detailed data and clear methodologies. For instance, the stress test on sovereign bond holdings is well-explained, distinguishing between direct and contagion effects. The discussion on NBFI vulnerabilities, particularly the first-mover advantage in open-ended funds, is well-argued with empirical evidence from the April 2025 episode. The speakers effectively link macroeconomic conditions to financial system risks, providing a coherent narrative. However, some forward-looking statements, such as the impact of US tariffs on credit risk, are based on assumptions that could be challenged, but they are presented transparently.

Scientific Rigor, Source Quality, Title Accuracy

The seminar is scientifically rigorous, as it is based on the Bundesbank’s official Financial Stability Report, which is a comprehensive and authoritative source. The speakers are directly involved in its preparation, ensuring accuracy. The quality of sources is high, with references to specific data and methodologies. The title accurately reflects the content, as it is indeed a presentation of the report. The discussion is well-structured, covering macroeconomic environment, banking sector, NBFIs, and policy implications. No external sources are cited, but the report itself is the primary source, and the presentation includes detailed charts and data. The adequacy between title and content is perfect, as the seminar is exactly what the title promises.

238 words

Title / Content Match

The title accurately describes the content: a policy web seminar presenting the Bundesbank's Financial Stability Report 2025.

Quality & Reliability

8/10

The seminar is presented by senior Bundesbank officials directly responsible for the Financial Stability Report, providing authoritative and current information. The content is well-structured, data-driven, and includes transparent methodology for stress tests. However, it is primarily an expert presentation rather than a peer-reviewed study, and some forward-looking assessments are inherently uncertain.

Chapters

Cited Sources

  • Financial Stability Report 2025 — The report is the main subject of the seminar, presented by its authors.

Concurring Sources

  • Financial Stability Report 2025 — The seminar is based on this report, and the speakers are its authors.

Contribution & Novelties

The seminar provides an original contribution by offering a detailed, expert-led analysis of the Bundesbank’s latest Financial Stability Report, highlighting new risks and vulnerabilities in the German financial system. It includes novel stress test scenarios on sovereign bond holdings and an analysis of NBFI liquidity risks during the April 2025 tariff shock. The discussion on the first-mover advantage in open-ended funds and the empirical evidence from the April episode is particularly insightful.

Pour aller plus loin :

  • Macroprudential policy — Provides background on the policy framework discussed.
  • Non-bank financial intermediation — The FSB’s work on NBFI, relevant to the seminar’s focus.
  • Sovereign-bank nexus — IMF working paper on the topic, directly related to the discussion on sovereign exposures.

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Radar Profile

The radar profile shows high scores across all dimensions, indicating a well-balanced and reliable presentation. The strongest aspects are the quantity and quality of information, reflecting the depth of the report. The technical level is also high, suitable for an expert audience. The overall reliability is solid, given the authoritative source.

Reliability 8/10