SAFE-CEPR Web Seminar "ECB November 2025 Financial Stability Review"

Item: SAFE-CEPR Web Seminar "ECB November 2025 Financial Stability Review"
Rating: 4
Author: PostSingularity Institute

by Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE

Humanities, Social Sciences & Thought Economics & Finance KFFinance and accounting KFFFinance and the finance industry

🎙 Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE 👥 435 📅 December 9, 2025 ⏱ 59 min 👁 34 📄 expert opinion 🧭 2026-08-15

Available in: English (current) Français

Keywords

stablecoinsfinancial stabilitybank-NBFI linkagesECBsystemic risk

Summary

This webinar, hosted by SAFE and CEPR, presents two key analyses from the ECB’s November 2025 Financial Stability Review. The first presentation, by Senne Aerts, focuses on stablecoins. It highlights their rapid growth, dominance of dollar-pegged stablecoins, and potential financial stability risks, including de-pegging, fire sales, and deposit substitution. The analysis notes that current risks to the euro area are limited due to the small size of euro-denominated stablecoins and the MiCA regulation, but warns of cross-border regulatory arbitrage. The second presentation, by Daniel Dieckelmann, examines bank-NBFI linkages. It identifies two main risk channels: banks’ reliance on short-term NBFI funding (scenario 4) and banks’ provision of leverage to NBFIs (scenario 1). Using granular data, the analysis shows that euro area G-SIBs are central to these linkages, with significant short-term funding and leverage provision, which could amplify asset price shocks. The presentations conclude with policy recommendations, including global implementation of the G20 crypto roadmap and maintaining G-SIBs’ loss-absorbing capacity.

158 words

Critical Evaluation

Value of the Information & Strength of the Argument

The value of the information is high, as it provides a detailed, data-driven assessment of two emerging financial stability risks. The argumentation is solid, based on official ECB analysis and granular supervisory data. The presenters clearly explain the mechanisms of risk transmission and support their claims with charts and references to specific data. They also acknowledge uncertainties and speculative elements, such as the potential for stablecoin growth to reach systemic levels. The discussion of bank-NBFI linkages is particularly valuable, as it uses new data to quantify exposures and identify specific vulnerabilities. The argumentation is coherent and well-structured, with clear policy implications.

Scientific Rigor, Source Quality, Title Accuracy

The scientific rigor is high, as the content is based on the ECB’s official Financial Stability Review, which undergoes rigorous internal review. The sources cited include the ECB’s own analysis, IMF research, and Basel Committee reports, all of which are reputable. The title accurately reflects the content, which is a presentation of the ECB’s review. The webinar format allows for expert commentary and Q&A, enhancing the credibility. The analysis is transparent about data limitations and assumptions. Overall, the sources are of high quality and the title is appropriate.

204 words

Title / Content Match

The title accurately reflects the content: a webinar presenting the ECB's November 2025 Financial Stability Review, focusing on two specific topics.

Quality & Reliability

8/10

The seminar features ECB experts presenting official analysis from the Financial Stability Review, based on granular supervisory data. The content is rigorous and well-structured, with clear caveats about uncertainties. However, it is a presentation of existing research rather than a peer-reviewed publication, and some projections are speculative.

Chapters

Cited Sources

ECB Financial Stability Review November 2025 — The main report discussed in the webinar, containing the Box on stablecoins and Special Feature B on bank-NBFI links.
IMF Research on stablecoin flows — Cited by Senne Aerts as the source for the finding that 70% of stablecoin flows are cross-regional.
Basel Committee Report on bank-NBFI interactions — Referenced by Daniel Dieckelmann as the source for the four scenarios of bank-NBFI risk.

Concurring Sources

ECB Financial Stability Review November 2025 — The primary source, providing the analysis presented in the webinar.
IMF Research on stablecoin flows — Supports the claim about cross-regional stablecoin flows.
Basel Committee Report on bank-NBFI interactions — Provides the conceptual framework for bank-NBFI risk scenarios.

Contribution & Novelties

The webinar provides a timely and detailed analysis of two emerging financial stability risks: stablecoins and bank-NBFI linkages. It offers new insights from the ECB’s granular data, particularly on the scale and nature of bank-NBFI exposures. The discussion of stablecoin reserve assets and their potential impact on short-term US Treasury markets is particularly novel. The presentations also highlight regulatory gaps and the need for international coordination.

Pour aller plus loin :

ECB Financial Stability Review November 2025 — The full report provides comprehensive analysis of financial stability risks in the euro area.
Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) — The EU regulation governing stablecoins and crypto-assets, which is central to the discussion.
Financial Stability Board’s G20 Crypto-Asset Roadmap — The international framework for regulating crypto-assets, including stablecoins.
Non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) — The FSB’s work on monitoring and addressing risks from NBFI.
Basel III liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) — The regulatory standard for bank liquidity, relevant to the discussion of bank funding stability.

162 words

Radar Profile

The radar profile shows high scores across all dimensions, indicating a well-balanced and reliable presentation. The strengths lie in the quantity and quality of information, as well as the high technical level and overall reliability. This reflects the expertise of the presenters and the robustness of the underlying data.

Reliability 8/10