Who gets ahead? Cross-country evidence on intragenerational income mobility | LSE III Event

Who gets ahead? Cross-country evidence on intragenerational income mobility | LSE III Event

Humanities, Social Sciences & Thought Economics & Finance KCEconomicsKCFLabour
🎙 Javier Terrero Dávila 👥 617 📅 July 13, 2026 ⏱ 56 min 👁 155 📄 expert opinion 🧭 2026-08-16
Available in: English (current) Français

Keywords

intragenerational mobilityincome dynamicsrank persistenceincome growthinequality

Summary

This seminar, hosted by the LSE International Inequalities Institute, features Javier Terrero Dávila, an economist at the OECD, presenting a study on intragenerational income mobility across four European countries: Austria, Belgium, Estonia, and Spain. Using harmonized administrative tax records, the research follows working-age individuals over a five-year period to analyze income dynamics. The study employs three mobility metrics: growth mobility (individual income growth), positional mobility (rank persistence), and absolute income gains. Key findings reveal that top incomes are highly persistent across all countries, while cross-country differences in mobility are most pronounced at the bottom of the income distribution. The research also demonstrates that higher inequality dampens positional mobility, as wider income gaps require more progressive growth for rank advancement. Additionally, mobility outcomes vary by demographic group, with younger individuals faring better at the bottom, women experiencing less upward mobility, and those with lower education showing weaker outcomes. The presentation highlights the importance of granular, distributional evidence in understanding income mobility and reconciling divergent cross-country rankings based on different metrics.

169 words

Critical Evaluation

Value of the Information & Strength of the Argument

The presentation provides valuable insights into intragenerational income mobility, a topic often overshadowed by intergenerational studies. The use of harmonized administrative data across four countries is a significant contribution, allowing for detailed distributional analysis that survey data cannot offer. The argumentation is solid, systematically comparing three mobility metrics and explaining how cross-country differences in inequality and income growth shape their relationships. The speaker effectively illustrates that aggregate mobility indicators can mask important variations along the income distribution, and that top incomes exhibit high persistence regardless of country. The reasoning is clear and well-supported by the presented graphs, though the analysis is preliminary and not yet peer-reviewed.

Scientific Rigor, Source Quality, Title Accuracy

The research is methodologically rigorous, relying on harmonized administrative data from four European countries, which is a strength compared to survey-based studies. The speaker transparently discusses data limitations, such as missing non-taxable benefits and the challenges of cross-country harmonization. The sources cited are primarily the OECD’s administrative microdata infrastructure and related literature, though specific references are not explicitly named. The title accurately reflects the content, focusing on cross-country evidence on intragenerational income mobility. The presentation is part of an academic seminar series, indicating a scholarly context. No comments were provided for analysis.

213 words

Title / Content Match

The title accurately reflects the content: the presentation provides cross-country evidence on intragenerational income mobility, focusing on who gets ahead.

Quality & Reliability

8/10

The presentation is based on harmonized administrative data from four European countries, a rigorous methodological approach, and is delivered by an OECD economist. The speaker transparently discusses data limitations and methodological choices. The evidence is preliminary and not yet peer-reviewed, but the analytical framework is sound.

Key Moments

Cited Sources

  • OECD Administrative Microdata Infrastructure — The speaker describes the OECD's initiative to build a harmonized administrative data infrastructure on incomes and labor market outcomes, which is the basis for this study.

Concurring Sources

  • OECD Income Distribution Database — The OECD's database on income distribution and inequality, which aligns with the study's focus on income dynamics and inequality.

Contribution & Novelties

This research provides a novel cross-country comparison of intragenerational income mobility using harmonized administrative data, which is rare in the literature. It systematically compares three mobility metrics and illustrates how cross-country differences in inequality and income growth can reconcile divergent rankings. The finding that top incomes are highly persistent everywhere, while differences are concentrated at the bottom, adds nuance to the understanding of mobility patterns. The study also highlights demographic disparities in mobility outcomes, emphasizing the importance of distributional analysis.

Pour aller plus loin :

  • Income mobility — Provides an overview of income mobility concepts and measures.
  • OECD Income Inequality — The OECD’s database on income distribution and inequality, relevant to the study’s context.
  • Rank-rank persistence — Discusses rank-rank persistence in the context of intergenerational mobility, a related concept.

129 words

Radar Profile

The radar profile shows high scores in information quantity, quality, and reliability, with a slightly lower technical level. This indicates a well-substantiated and rigorous presentation, though the technical complexity may be moderate for a general audience.

Reliability 8/10