ESE Fall Seminar #2, September 8, 2025, Dr. Frank Felder: "Resource Adequacy Modeling & Policy"

Value of the Information & Strength of the Argument

The presentation provides valuable insights into the current state of resource adequacy in the U.S., with a focus on the PJM market. Felder effectively argues that the rapid increase in data center load forecasts poses significant challenges to system reliability and planning. He supports his arguments with specific data, such as the 32 GW increase in demand forecasts in PJM, and discusses the uncertainties and speculative nature of these forecasts. The argumentation is balanced, acknowledging both the need for new capacity and the risks of overbuilding. He also highlights the policy implications, including the political sensitivity of electricity prices and reliability. The discussion of potential solutions, such as non-firm load products, is thoughtful and considers multiple perspectives.

Scientific Rigor, Source Quality, Title Accuracy

The presentation demonstrates a high level of scientific rigor, with the speaker drawing on his extensive experience and expertise. He references specific reports and data, such as the DOE report and PJM’s load forecasts, but does not provide detailed citations for all claims. The title accurately reflects the content, which is focused on resource adequacy modeling and policy in the context of data centers and load growth. The speaker clearly distinguishes between his own views and those of his clients, and acknowledges the limitations of current models and forecasts. Overall, the sources are credible, but the presentation would benefit from more explicit references to specific studies or reports.

The title accurately reflects the content, which focuses on resource adequacy modeling and policy in the context of data centers and load growth.

8/10

The speaker is a recognized expert with a PhD from MIT and extensive experience in electricity markets and resource adequacy. The presentation is well-structured, grounded in current data and examples, and includes a balanced discussion of uncertainties and policy implications. However, it is an expert opinion rather than a peer-reviewed study, and some claims are not fully sourced.

Markers derived by PSI from the transcript: the creator did not define chapters.

• 02:00Introduction and overview of the seminar topic.
• 05:00Definition of resource adequacy and its importance.
• 10:00Discussion of recent load growth and data center demand.
• 15:00Overview of PJM and its capacity market.
• 20:00Challenges to resource adequacy: renewables, retirements, interconnection queues.
• 25:00Policy implications and the role of states and federal regulators.
• 30:00Potential solutions and the concept of non-firm load.
• 35:00Discussion of modeling approaches and their limitations.
• 40:00Q&A session begins.

• PJM Interconnection — Mentioned as the regional transmission organization for the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, and the source of load forecasts and capacity market data.
• U.S. Department of Energy — Referenced for a report on resource adequacy concerns.
• Oxford Institute for Energy Studies — Mentioned as the affiliation of the speaker, indicating expertise.

• North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) — NERC's reliability assessments often highlight similar concerns about resource adequacy and load growth.
• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — EIA's electricity data and forecasts align with the trends discussed in the presentation.

• Some analysts argue that data center load forecasts are overstated — There is debate about the accuracy of data center load forecasts, with some experts suggesting that the actual growth may be lower than projected due to efficiency improvements and potential overbuilding.