Alex Rubenstein - Seabirds and Climate Change - 2026 MAS CSP Capstone Symposium

Value of the Information & Strength of the Argument

The presentation provides valuable insights into the relationship between climate variables and seabird populations, using a robust dataset and appropriate statistical methods. The argumentation is well-structured, moving from background to methodology to results and implications. The use of multiple data sources and the inclusion of field surveys strengthen the validity of the findings. However, the presenter acknowledges limitations, such as inconsistent results for atmospheric rivers, and the study is not yet peer-reviewed, which tempers the strength of the conclusions.

Scientific Rigor, Source Quality, Title Accuracy

The scientific rigor is evident in the use of established datasets (eBird, BeachCOMBERS) and standard statistical techniques (GAM). The sources are credible, and the methodology is transparent. The title accurately reflects the content, which focuses on seabirds and climate change. The presentation includes a clear description of the study area and data collection, and the results are presented with appropriate caveats. The inclusion of field surveys adds a practical dimension to the research. Overall, the sources and title are well-aligned with the content.

The title accurately reflects the content, which focuses on the impact of climate change on seabirds, specifically Brandt's cormorants.

7/10

The presentation is based on original research using established datasets (eBird, BeachCOMBERS) and standard statistical methods (GAM). The methodology is clearly described, and the results are presented with appropriate caveats. However, the study is not yet peer-reviewed, and some analyses (e.g., atmospheric rivers) yielded inconsistent results, indicating limitations.

Markers derived by PSI from the transcript: the creator did not define chapters.

• 00:00Introduction and imaginative exercise: becoming a Brandt's cormorant chick.
• 02:00Importance of seabirds as sentinels of environmental change and their ecological roles.
• 04:00Overview of seabird population declines and climate change impacts.
• 06:00Study area: Southern California Bight and data sources (eBird, BeachCOMBERS).
• 08:00Environmental variables: sea surface temperature, Oceanic Niño Index, atmospheric rivers.
• 10:00Results: GAM analysis showing 39.8% deviance explained; offshore movement with warming.
• 12:00Field surveys in La Jolla Cove: seabird counts and nest monitoring.
• 14:00Breeding success results: 2.76 eggs per pair, 1.07 fledglings per pair.
• 16:00Science communication efforts: article, interpretive sign, and outreach.
• 18:00Q&A: potential impacts of upcoming super El Niño on seabirds.

• eBird — Citizen science platform used for abundance data.
• BeachCOMBERS — Monthly dead bird beach surveys along the California coast.

• eBird — Used for abundance data; consistent with citizen science approaches.
• BeachCOMBERS — Used for mortality data; consistent with long-term monitoring programs.