CSF 2026, Day 2, Keynote: Dr Toshi Yoshihara

Value of the Information & Strength of the Argument

The talk provides valuable insights into Chinese military thinking, based on the speaker’s extensive research and access to Chinese-language sources. The argumentation is well-structured, moving from specific examples to broader conclusions. The speaker offers a balanced perspective, acknowledging both Chinese strengths and vulnerabilities. He also introduces the concept of a ‘reverse Zelensky effect’ and discusses the PLA’s potential confirmation biases. The analysis is nuanced and avoids simplistic characterizations.

Scientific Rigor, Source Quality, Title Accuracy

The speaker cites his own books and chapters, as well as Chinese military publications and doctrinal documents. He references specific events and exercises, such as the sinking of the Moskva and the Japanese missile test in the Philippines. The title accurately reflects the content, and the talk is well-organized. The speaker’s expertise and the use of primary sources enhance the credibility of the presentation.

The title accurately reflects the content: a keynote address at the Current Strategy Forum by Dr. Toshi Yoshihara on Chinese military lessons.

8/10

The speaker is a recognized expert in Chinese military affairs, and the talk is based on his extensive research and publications. The analysis is nuanced and balanced, drawing on a variety of sources. However, as an expert opinion, it is not peer-reviewed and contains some speculative elements.

Markers derived by PSI from the transcript: the creator did not define chapters.

• 00:00Introduction and overview of the talk's purpose and methods.
• 02:00Discussion of the PLA's learning from other people's wars, including the Gulf War and recent conflicts.
• 05:00Analysis of Chinese writings on the sinking of the Moskva and the Red Sea engagements.
• 10:00Examination of Chinese lessons on counter-logistics campaigns, drawing on Guadalcanal and the Gulf War.
• 15:00Discussion of the peaceful liberation of Beijing and its relevance to Taiwan.
• 20:00Conclusion: the PLA as a learning organization and the difference between knowing and learning lessons.

• Red Star Over the Pacific (3rd edition) — Co-authored with Jim Holmes, used for analysis of Chinese writings on naval combat.
• Mao's Finest Hour (forthcoming) — Book by the speaker on the Chinese Civil War, used for lessons from the peaceful liberation of Beijing.
• Chapter in co-edited volume by John Maurer — Contributed chapter on Chinese lessons from the Pacific War.

• Red Star Over the Pacific — The speaker's own book, which aligns with the talk's themes.